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FirstBank of Nigeria has cautioned that recent improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators will have little impact on ordinary citizens unless they translate into stronger private-sector investment, higher productivity and meaningful improvements in living standards.
In its “Reading the Signals | The Next Half” Mid-Year Economic & Market Outlook 2026, the bank said Nigeria has entered a new phase of its economic reform journey where the focus should shift from restoring stability to ensuring that economic gains are reflected in businesses, employment and household welfare.
From Stabilisation to Inclusive Growth
According to FirstBank’s Economic Research team, two years of policy reforms have helped improve several macroeconomic indicators, including stronger foreign exchange market conditions, healthier external reserves and renewed investor confidence.
The report noted that Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $51.46 billion as of June 30, 2026, while liquidity in the official foreign exchange market has improved significantly, contributing to greater market stability.
However, the bank stressed that macroeconomic stability alone should not be viewed as the final objective of economic reforms.
Instead, it argued that the country’s next challenge is converting those gains into increased productive activity, higher levels of private investment and broader improvements across the real economy.
Inflation and High Financing Costs Still Weigh on Businesses
Despite the progress recorded in key economic indicators, FirstBank warned that several challenges continue to limit growth.
The report pointed to persistently high inflation, restrictive financing conditions and the slow transmission of economic reforms to businesses and households as major obstacles preventing many Nigerians from feeling the benefits of recent policy changes.
According to the bank, the second half of 2026 is likely to be defined less by the introduction of new economic policies and more by how effectively existing reforms stimulate investment, improve competitiveness and create inclusive growth.
Domestic Refining Reshaping Nigeria’s Trade Balance
The report also highlighted significant improvements in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, particularly the growing impact of domestic refining.
Refined petroleum exports increased by 20.3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.37 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while imports of refined petroleum products fell sharply by 87.5% to $310 million, compared with $2.48 billion in the previous quarter.
This shift contributed to an expansion of Nigeria’s goods account surplus to $5.95 billion, reflecting changing trade dynamics driven by increased local refining capacity.
FirstBank noted that the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery played a significant role by boosting exports of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel to markets across Africa and Europe, particularly during periods of global supply disruptions.
Private Investment Seen as Key to Sustaining Reforms
Looking ahead, the bank identified sustained foreign exchange inflows, stronger export performance and increased long-term capital investment as critical factors for maintaining Nigeria’s economic momentum.
It argued that future success should be measured not only by improvements in macroeconomic indicators but also by the country’s ability to expand domestic value addition, improve productivity and encourage greater private-sector participation.
According to the report, creating an environment that supports business expansion and innovation will be essential to translating economic reforms into lasting prosperity.
Investor Confidence Showing Signs of Recovery
FirstBank’s assessment comes amid indications that investor sentiment toward Nigeria is improving.
Recent data show that capital importation reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8% year-on-year increase, reflecting renewed confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
While these developments signal progress, the bank maintained that the true measure of reform success will be whether they generate employment opportunities, raise incomes and improve the quality of life for Nigerians.
The Next Phase of Economic Reform
The bank concluded that Nigeria has largely completed the stabilisation phase of its economic adjustment programme and must now focus on inclusive, productivity-driven growth.
It urged policymakers to prioritise measures that encourage private investment, strengthen productive sectors and create conditions that enable businesses to expand and households to benefit from sustained economic progress.
According to FirstBank, macroeconomic stability provides the foundation for growth, but only sustained investment, stronger productivity and broader participation in economic activity will deliver lasting improvements in living standards for millions of Nigerians.FirstBank of Nigeria has cautioned that recent improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators will have little impact on ordinary citizens unless they translate into stronger private-sector investment, higher productivity and meaningful improvements in living standards.
In its “Reading the Signals | The Next Half” Mid-Year Economic & Market Outlook 2026, the bank said Nigeria has entered a new phase of its economic reform journey where the focus should shift from restoring stability to ensuring that economic gains are reflected in businesses, employment and household welfare.
From Stabilisation to Inclusive Growth
According to FirstBank’s Economic Research team, two years of policy reforms have helped improve several macroeconomic indicators, including stronger foreign exchange market conditions, healthier external reserves and renewed investor confidence.
The report noted that Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $51.46 billion as of June 30, 2026, while liquidity in the official foreign exchange market has improved significantly, contributing to greater market stability.
However, the bank stressed that macroeconomic stability alone should not be viewed as the final objective of economic reforms.
Instead, it argued that the country’s next challenge is converting those gains into increased productive activity, higher levels of private investment and broader improvements across the real economy.
Inflation and High Financing Costs Still Weigh on Businesses
Despite the progress recorded in key economic indicators, FirstBank warned that several challenges continue to limit growth.
The report pointed to persistently high inflation, restrictive financing conditions and the slow transmission of economic reforms to businesses and households as major obstacles preventing many Nigerians from feeling the benefits of recent policy changes.
According to the bank, the second half of 2026 is likely to be defined less by the introduction of new economic policies and more by how effectively existing reforms stimulate investment, improve competitiveness and create inclusive growth.
Domestic Refining Reshaping Nigeria’s Trade Balance
The report also highlighted significant improvements in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, particularly the growing impact of domestic refining.
Refined petroleum exports increased by 20.3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.37 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while imports of refined petroleum products fell sharply by 87.5% to $310 million, compared with $2.48 billion in the previous quarter.
This shift contributed to an expansion of Nigeria’s goods account surplus to $5.95 billion, reflecting changing trade dynamics driven by increased local refining capacity.
FirstBank noted that the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery played a significant role by boosting exports of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel to markets across Africa and Europe, particularly during periods of global supply disruptions.
Private Investment Seen as Key to Sustaining Reforms
Looking ahead, the bank identified sustained foreign exchange inflows, stronger export performance and increased long-term capital investment as critical factors for maintaining Nigeria’s economic momentum.
It argued that future success should be measured not only by improvements in macroeconomic indicators but also by the country’s ability to expand domestic value addition, improve productivity and encourage greater private-sector participation.
According to the report, creating an environment that supports business expansion and innovation will be essential to translating economic reforms into lasting prosperity.
Investor Confidence Showing Signs of Recovery
FirstBank’s assessment comes amid indications that investor sentiment toward Nigeria is improving.
Recent data show that capital importation reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8% year-on-year increase, reflecting renewed confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
While these developments signal progress, the bank maintained that the true measure of reform success will be whether they generate employment opportunities, raise incomes and improve the quality of life for Nigerians.
The Next Phase of Economic Reform
The bank concluded that Nigeria has largely completed the stabilisation phase of its economic adjustment programme and must now focus on inclusive, productivity-driven growth.
It urged policymakers to prioritise measures that encourage private investment, strengthen productive sectors and create conditions that enable businesses to expand and households to benefit from sustained economic progress.
According to FirstBank, macroeconomic stability provides the foundation for growth, but only sustained investment, stronger productivity and broader participation in economic activity will deliver lasting improvements in living standards for millions of Nigerians.
